World population projections

While that has been the general experience in some parts of the world, notably Europe, it is not yet clear whether it is a universal pattern. One of the main determinants of that future growth is where each group is geographically concentrated today.

As previously mentioned, Hindus are projected to roughly keep pace with global population growth. And the projections assume that people gradually are living longer in most countries. For more details, see the Methodology.

World population

OK, back to the new data released in They point out that if the average fertility rate was just 0. But working with researchers at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Laxenburg, Austria, the Pew Research Center has developed an innovative way of using data on past migration patterns to estimate the religious composition of migrant flows in the decades ahead.

In others, changes in religious identity are rare, legally cumbersome or even illegal. The hypothetical feasibility and wide availability of life extension by technological means would further exacerbate the overpopulation problem.

Populations in many parts of the world are still young, creating an opportunity for countries to capture a demographic dividend Populations in many regions are still young. Bythe report assumed life expectancy to be from 66 to 97 years, and by from 87 to years, depending on the country.

The answer depends on continuation of the trends described in Chapter 1. Within seven years bythe population of India will overtake that of China, and will reach 1. Population projections are estimates built on current population data and assumptions about demographic trends, such as declining birth rates and rising life expectancies in particular countries.

Countries already at this level or below, and other countries when they reach it, will eventually return to replacement over a period of a century and stay at replacement going forward.

The first chapter looks at the demographic factors that shape the projections, including sections on fertility rates, life expectancy, age structure, religious switching and migration. Based on that assumption, they said that rising life expectancy will produce small but continuing population growth by the end of the projections, ranging from 0.

Forecasting future migration patterns is difficult, because migration is often linked to government policies and international events that can change quickly.

United Nations

The projections in the report assume this with no upper limit, though at a slowing pace depending on circumstances in individual countries. At the same time, however, the unaffiliated are expected to continue to increase as a share of the population in much of Europe and North America.

April 2, The Future of World Religions: The impact of migration can be seen in the examples shown in the graph at the right, which compares projection scenarios with and without migration in the regions where it will have the greatest impact. A recent update from the United Nations has a somewhat higher estimate, 9.

But bythe population of India is expected to surpass that of China. The model uses an advanced version of the cohort-component method typically employed by demographers to forecast population growth.

Projections of population growth

To avoid double-counting, they are not included in the Jewish population. Much of the worldwide growth of Islam and Christianity, for example, is expected to take place World population projections sub-Saharan Africa.

Islam was second, with 1. These projections model a dynamic migrant population in GCC countries, in which some migrants leave as others arrive and, over time, there are net gains in the size of the foreign-born population within each GCC country.

In the United States, Christians will decline from more than three-quarters of the population in to two-thirds inand Judaism will no longer be the largest non-Christian religion. Indeed, Nigeria is projected to have the third-largest Christian population in the world byafter the United States and Brazil.

In fact bonus chart! It starts with a population of baseline age groups, or cohorts, divided by sex and religion.Max Roser () - "Future Population Growth". Why this happened becomes clearer if we look at the projections for the world fertility rate and global life expectancy.

Estimates of the world population compared with the UN forecasts, since – Keilman () 8. Population growth estimates from the current year up to for the entire population of the world. rows · Projections of population growth established in predict that the human population is likely to keep growing untilreaching an estimated billion inThe median estimate for future growth sees the.

The current world population of billion is expected to reach billion bybillion in and billion inaccording to a new UN DESA report, “World Population Prospects.

Population Estimates and Projections, World Bank Group. 0 (0) ; Health, Nutrition and Population. This database presents population and other demographic estimates and projections from to They are disaggregated by age-group and sex and covers more than economies.

The Revision of World Population Prospects is the twenty-fifth round of official United Nations population estimates and projections that have been prepared by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat.

The main results are presented in a series of Excel files displaying .

World population projections
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